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fcanesin 53 minutes ago [-]
Maybe was this that was the last drop for Sundar.
Demis: "I have a new amazing breakthrough"
Sundar: "Great! We really need a answer to Sol and Fable"
Demis: "They are completely owned in typhoon forecasting"
trescenzi 35 minutes ago [-]
Ironically typhoon forecasting, at this moment, is more valuable. These predictions are matters of life, death, and billions of dollars in damage.
davoneus 5 minutes ago [-]
I agree, but the shareholder mentality undervalues the heck out of that.
sweezyjeezy 31 minutes ago [-]
Valuable, agreed. But lucrative?
gniv 14 minutes ago [-]
Are Sol and Fable lucrative? I suspect they also are valuable (to clients) but not lucrative (yet).
jen729w 2 hours ago [-]
I just discovered typhoon/cyclone predictions and they're insane. I get mine via https://zoom.earth (whose iPhone app is terrific).
Here's a selection from Typhoon Dolphin, currently sitting off the east coast of China.
Dolphin continues its slow, trochoidal Z motion, generally heading westward deeper into the East China Sea. Over the past 12 hours, the system completed another cyclonic loop and has decelerated, exhibiting continued meandering prior to establishing a sustained westward track.
The erratic motion witnessed over the past two days is attributable to a weak steering environment produced by a break in the subtropical ridge 2 over Korea, combined with the dynamics where the inner core is cocooned within a much larger parent circulation.
While the general steering pattern is weak, a mesoscale deep-layer ridge is seen building over southern Japan.
Here's Chan-hom, which threatens to make my birthday a windy day here in northern Japan.
Intensity guidance is in good agreement overall. However, the JTWC forecast is placed lower than all the guidance save for Google DeepMind over the next 36 hours, before joining the consensus envelope (which peaks at 95 km/h (50 knots) at 60 hours) through the remainder of the forecast.
If you’re just getting into this tropical tidbits[0] is my go to for more raw data. Less pretty than zoom earth but also an interesting place to see what the models are predicting on each of their runs which is then interesting to compare to actual forecast guidance.
This is really cool, please more of this from the AI folks! That’s way more impactful and interesting than another coding agent
bhavansig 4 hours ago [-]
From the tagline in the article: "WeatherNext enables accurate cyclone forecasts that can give an extra day of warning. Now we are open sourcing the model."
_alternator_ 9 minutes ago [-]
Accurate weather forecasting has been one of the major achievements of the 20th and 21st century. Computing power is a central piece of this story, but it's also important to remember that the government infrastructure in place to collect ground-truth current weather data is utterly critical to these model's successes. From launching weather balloons to running global weather-monitoring satellites, the scientists and systems at NOAA/NWS (and in this case, the UK counterparts) provide critical expertise and data.
I say this because it seems that earlier announcements where industrial deep neural nets "outperformed NOAA" likely encouraged the slash-and-burn Trump administration in its gutting of critical activities and centers of expertise at NOAA. The impression that industry can predict weather better than the government agencies totally misses that the industrial models utterly rely on government data for inputs. In fact, almost all weather reports you see---weather.com, TV, etc.---are just lightly repackaged products that NOAA provides for free on weather.gov (which you can access for free without ads).
snake_doc 52 minutes ago [-]
> We can now generate a single 15-day forecast in less than a minute on a TPU, empowering forecasters to quickly evaluate the probability distribution of potentially devastating tail-risks.
Crazy
derbOac 50 minutes ago [-]
"This has surprised scientists, and it remains an open research question to fully understand how our models produce such accurate predictions at this resolution."
Also crazy.
Seems important to understand why something does what it does, in the very least to know when it might not?
alpaca9 1 minutes ago [-]
You can't, and it's one of the biggest problems when trying to use AI for anything.
moktonar 2 hours ago [-]
They should try to forecast earthquakes, that would really be a breakthrough If anything better than random comes out
mattlondon 54 minutes ago [-]
Google has the early warning system that gives people maybe 20-30s to e.g. turn off gas, stop vehicles, get under something solid. There was a lot of news recently about how this saved many thousands of lives in Venezuela I think it was.
But hey let's all keep shitting on Google because their coding agent is slightly worse than SOTA.
phoghed 14 minutes ago [-]
> But hey let's all keep shitting on Google because their coding agent is slightly worse than SOTA.
Reminder, we can do two or even more things. In fact, we can even simultaneously hold contradictory opinions.
Aboutplants 31 minutes ago [-]
This needs to be tied to a whole house shutoff system because if I get an alert I’m not thinking about shutting off my gas or water. Having a system that shut those off immediately would be great
talon8635 50 minutes ago [-]
This was my immediate hope too, as fault line resident
Yokolos 1 hours ago [-]
Is this even feasible with our current sensor data?
pingou 2 hours ago [-]
It seems especially useful for cargo ships, with better predictions they could save some fuel and be safer.
embedding-shape 1 hours ago [-]
Wake me up once commercial airplanes can take advantage of this and take us across the Atlantic in less than 5 hours.
fallingbananna 9 minutes ago [-]
I don't mean to be disrespectful... but, why would you consider tech intended to save lives and resources less of a deal, than slightly faster flights over the Atlantic?
notfromhere 56 minutes ago [-]
planes fly above the weather, so kinda irrelevant. you can cross the atlantic fast with something like the Concorde
embedding-shape 49 minutes ago [-]
Well, that explains why even cyclones don't make us faster!
Obviously the technology I'm talking about would involve the planes going into the cyclone so plane can go faster.
Demis: "I have a new amazing breakthrough"
Sundar: "Great! We really need a answer to Sol and Fable"
Demis: "They are completely owned in typhoon forecasting"
Here's a selection from Typhoon Dolphin, currently sitting off the east coast of China.
https://zoom.earth/storms/dolphin-2026/Here's Chan-hom, which threatens to make my birthday a windy day here in northern Japan.
https://zoom.earth/storms/chan-hom-2026/1: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/
I say this because it seems that earlier announcements where industrial deep neural nets "outperformed NOAA" likely encouraged the slash-and-burn Trump administration in its gutting of critical activities and centers of expertise at NOAA. The impression that industry can predict weather better than the government agencies totally misses that the industrial models utterly rely on government data for inputs. In fact, almost all weather reports you see---weather.com, TV, etc.---are just lightly repackaged products that NOAA provides for free on weather.gov (which you can access for free without ads).
Crazy
Also crazy.
Seems important to understand why something does what it does, in the very least to know when it might not?
But hey let's all keep shitting on Google because their coding agent is slightly worse than SOTA.
Reminder, we can do two or even more things. In fact, we can even simultaneously hold contradictory opinions.
Obviously the technology I'm talking about would involve the planes going into the cyclone so plane can go faster.